|08-21-2014, 03:37 PM||#1|
EUR/USD Slide Continues but EUR Weakness Elsewhere Questionable
- EURUSD cracks to fresh yearly lows at 1.3241.
- USDCHF has resumed its move towards 0.9160/89.
- US Dollar strength in August shouldn't surprise - it's a seasonally strong month.
EURUSD and USDCHF are back in tandem, and while that mean a bit more EURUSD weakness as USDCHF tries for $0.9160, that doesn't mean that Euro has to weaken across the board. The trailing quarterly correlation (63 days, average month has 21 trading days) between EURUSD and USDCHF is -0.960; or +0.960 between EUR and CHF.
The EUR and CHF relationship is important to note because even though both currencies are showing a tendency for further losses against the US Dollar, they might not be elsewhere.
EURGBP's potential inverse head & shoulders bottoming pattern looks more valid in context of GBPCHF's head & shoulders topping formation; both point to British Pound weakness relative to the Euro and Swiss Franc.
If EURJPY can clear ¥138.05, it will have broken out of 1) an expanding wedge since July 10 and 2) the downtrend encased by the May 13 and June 9 highs. Given the down move since the start of the year, a reasonable target in the short-term would around ¥139.30, where the descending TL from the December 27, 2013 and May 8, 2014 highs intersect at the end of next week.
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