|08-25-2014, 01:11 PM||#1|
Household spending, GDP, and durables orders to see this week in the U.S.
The economic data in the week ahead will likely reinforce the view the U.S. economic strength contrasts with developments in Europe and Japan, which will in turn give the dollar a new reason to keep going up.
The most important U.S. data this week include the volatile durable goods orders, a reading on second-quarter U.S. growth the July readings of personal income and consumption.
Thursday also brings a second estimate from the US Commerce Department on second quarter GDP, with economists hoping that stronger investment by businesses and healthier consumer spending will lead to a similar read on second quarter growth to the Commerce Department’s initial 4 per cent estimate at the end of July.
Personal income and consumption are set to start Q3 on a softer note. Monthly increases of income average 0.4% in Q2 and 0.6% in Q1. In July, it is expected to have risen by 0.3%.
Similarly, personal consumption increased by an average of 0.3% a month in Q1 and Q2, but in July may have risen by 0.2%.
The core PCE deflator, which for the Fed has a privileged place, is likely to have remained stable at 1.5%. As it the typical pattern, it remains below the core CPI (1.9%).
The Commerce Department is expected to release new home sales statistics for July on Monday, the S&P/Case-Shiller index on US home prices in the 12 months to June is due on Tuesday, and numbers on pending home sales are expected on Thursday.
US durable goods orders for July are due on Tuesday, weekly initial jobless claims and second quarter personal consumption statistics are expected on Thursday, and July’s personal spending statistics are expected on Friday.
After a poor start to the year, the US dollar has performed better recently. The heavily European-weighted Dollar Index is at its highest level since last September. On a trade-weighted basis, the dollar is near its best level since July 2013.
The U.S. has been hoarding on better-than-expected economic news and on speculations the Federal Reserve will start to hike interest rates sooner than other major central banks as the economy continues to improve.
The ECB cut interest rates in June and promised banks cheap long-term loans starting in September, and any new measures before those loans kick in had been considered unlikely.
However, in remarks that opened the door to possible policy action at the bank`s next meeting in September, ECB President Mario Draghi said on Friday that the bank is prepared to respond with all its "available" tools should inflation drop further.
Earnings news this week will be highlighted by Best Buy, Tiffany, and Dollar General.
Developments in Ukraine will continue to be a major focus for markets, with the negative headlines of recent weeks having pushed German bond yields to new lows.
Investors will be closely watching the outcome of a meeting scheduled in Minsk on Tuesday between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart Petro Poroshenko.
The Ukraine crisis has already hurt business sentiment in Germany, which has strong trade links with Russia, and the effect will be scrutinized again on Monday when the closely watched Ifo index for August is released. Analysts are predicting another fall in morale.
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